It is not the hawks of the ECB who are expressing their views, but rather the financial markets who are anticipating it: the rise in short-term rates in the euro zone has now become a likely scenario in 2026.

The year 2025 saw short-term rates fall while long-term rates rose, ending - by March 2025 - two years of inversion of the euro swap curve.

On September 17, the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds target rate by 0.25%

On June 5, 2025, the European Central Bank lowered its key interest rates by 0.25% for the eighth consecutive time, bringing the ECB's...

At 5.5% in the UK, 5% in the USA, 4% in France, 3.5% in Germany and even over 3% in Japan, yields on 30-year Government debt in the main...

Donald Trump has just surprised the market with historic new tariffs.

Germany's strong announcements triggered an unprecedented surge in long rates in the Eurozone.

The ECB has just published a highly anticipated study on the "neutral rate" or "r*".

Is the decoupling of long-term rates between the Euro and the USD already over?

Expectations of US short rates to 2026 have risen from 2.75% to 3.50%. A considerable shock.

The FED has chosen to "hit hard" with a 50-basis points rate cut.

Lower central bank rates will not necessarily lead to lower long-term swap rates